Immigration: The Numbers Game

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is under considerable political pressure to fix Germany and Europe’s immigration problem within the next two weeks. Otherwise, Bavaria will start turning migrants back at the border and thus render a pan-European solution impossible. Today, she met French President Emmanuel Macron for talks and the two…

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Europe – be careful what you wish for!

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has told French radio that U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal was a mistake, adding that the United States should not consider itself as the world’s “economic policeman.” The Europeans, in particular the British, French and Germans, are…

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Macron in trouble as forecast

When the new French president Emmanuel Macron took office on 14 May 2017, his approval rating stood at 62% and in June rose to 64%. But this week, his rating has slumped to just 54%, the biggest drop since Jacques Chirac’s approval fell by 15 points between May and July 1995.…

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Show Me The Money

Much of the West is effectively bankrupt and insolvent. The developing world is not much better off. France’s cumulative debt of government, households and businesses amounts to 250% of GDP, an increase of 66% since 2007. That figure excludes unfunded pension and health-care liabilities. six largest pension saving systems –…

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Obama vs Macron – déjà vu?

It is hard to avoid noticing the striking similarities between Barack Obama and Emmanuel Macron. Both were relatively young on becoming president of their respective countries, both came out of virtually nowhere, both rode a wave of deep discontent within their own societies, and both made a play of being…

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ESC’s France Forecasts Vindicated

The second round of voting in the French presidential elections today has vindicated our analysis and forecasts of 23 April 2017 immediately following the first round of voting and our view that immigration will play a big role in the voting. As many expected, the centre-right candidate Emmanuel Macron won…

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France continues the trend after first round of presidential election

Speaking on the TV channel France 24 just before the results of the first round of the French presidential were announced on 23 April 2017, John Gaffney, Professor of Politics and Co-Director of the Aston Centre for Europe at Aston University in Birmingham in the UK, said that the Fifth Republic…

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