Immigration: The Numbers Game

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is under considerable political pressure to fix Germany and Europe’s immigration problem within the next two weeks. Otherwise, Bavaria will start turning migrants back at the border and thus render a pan-European solution impossible.


Today, she met French President Emmanuel Macron for talks and the two politicians agreed on the EU budget and closer economic union, with Merkel making some concessions to Macron.

On immigration, however, Europe still has “no idea what it’s dealing with,” as the Hollywood phrase goes.

In this 2015 interview on Swiss television, for instance, the German academic Gunnar Heinsohn points out:

Wir hören eine Million in einem Jahr nach Deutschland, und denken natürlich, dass das viel ist.

Ich denke nicht, dass es viel ist, weil der Raum aus dem die Menschen zu uns streben, zwischen Marokko und Indonesien und dann runter bis nach Kapstadt, zwei Milliarden Menschen hat – von denen, und da glaube ich ist gar nicht viel, jeder vierte – im Durchschnitt ist es mal 10% mal 50%, jeder vierte will weg aus der Heimat, und das sind halt ungefähr 500 Millionen, die von der Wanderung träumen.

Die werden nie alle kommen können, aber man versteht aus dieser Zahl heraus, was der Druck ist, der auch hinter der einen Million steht, die jetzt gekommen ist.

We hear of a million arriving in Germany in a year, and of course we think that’s a lot.

I don’t think it is much, because the area in which people aspire to come to us, between Morocco and Indonesia and then down to Cape Town, has two billion people, of whom – and I don’t think that is much, every fourth – on average it is 10% to 50% – one in four, wants to leave home, That is about 500 million who are dreaming about migration.

They’ll never all be able to come, but that number tells you about the pressure there is behind the one million that have arrived.

SRF, 1 October 2015

In 2009, Heinsohn also pointed out that as soon as Boko Haram started killing people when it began its insurgency in Nigeria in 2009, the country’s whole population became eligible for asylum – if it reached Europe.

In 1950, Nigeria’s population was about 37 million, but by 2017 it had shot up to 191 million.

By 2050, it is projected to increase to 794 million and become the third-most populous country in the world, ahead of the United States. By 21oo, the figure is expected to reach 794 million.

Today, coincidentally, the German newspaper the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung published an article on a book by Steve Smith, a former journalist who now who teaches African Studies at Duke University.

The article’s headline runs

Europa droht eine gigantische Flüchtlingswelle

Europa muss sich auf massive Einwanderung aus Afrika einstellen, sagt ein amerikanischer Forscher. Daran werde auch Entwicklungshilfe nichts ändern. Den moralischen Standpunkt der Deutschen findet er „sonderbar“.

Europe is facing a huge refugee wave

Europe must adjust to massive immigration from Africa, says an American researcher. Development aid will not change that. He finds the moral standpoint of the Germans “strange.”

Smith’s book has only appeared in French so far, with the tile La ruée vers l’Europe (The Stampede to Europe, Der Ansturm auf Europa), but has been quoted by Macron and seen as a wake-up call in some quarters.

Smith told the FAZ that he was now working on an English version due out this autumn entitled To Europe: Young Africa on the Way to the Old Continent, as well as a German edition.

Smith repeats, yet again, the warnings on the threat to Europe and North America from massive population growth and mass immigration made by Bassam Tibi in 1992, Gary Young in the early 1990s, and Gunnar Heinsohn in his 2003 book Söhne und Weltmacht. Terror im Aufstieg und Fall der Nationen (Sons and Global Power. Terror in the Rise and Fall of Nations).

Politicians can continue ignoring such warnings.

Europe will then implode.

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